Pioneering Past and Bright of Impactful Research and Scholarly Achievements

“EXCELLENCE THROUGH KNOWLEDGE” P A G E 74 Technology, Energy, and Mining, Hon. Julian Robinson, stated that the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) wanted to extend the renewable energy fraction to 30% of Jamaica’s energy supply. The sectors that have been identified in the National Energy Policy 2009-2030 as the main areas for the establishment of linkages to support the realization of the vision include agriculture, transportation, construction, bauxite and finance. However, the main consumers of petroleum have been identified as: transportation (road, rail, shipping and aviation), electricity generation, bauxite and others (including manufacturing, cooking and lighting). The work presented in this paper, focuses on the use of the LINDA (Long-range Integrated Development Analysis) energy model in the scenario planning process for Jamaica up to 2030. The model looks at how the future could develop based on historical data and established future plans. Assumptions regarding annual growth rates were made, hence the outcomes of the model from 2015 up to 2030 are ‘what if scenarios. These may not occur, however, if all inputs to the model were actualized then thesewould be the expected outcomes. Inputs to themodel include economic data regarding sectoral growth rates and electrical energy expansion and decommissioning plans. As the 20% fraction of renewable energy was the initial target, the analyses of the results of the model uses this target. The LINDA energy model is a scenario building calculation system for integrating different aspects of future development in one tool. Future scenarios regarding energy use for the economy in different sectors are determined based on inputs including historical economic growth rates, energy use, trends and plans. The Jamaica LINDA model projects that up to 2030 based on the projected economic growth and existing expansion plans, the amount of installed capacity should be able to adequately supply the demand. By 2030, the maximum electrical power demand should be 1213MW and the installed capacity 1443MW; this leaves an excess capacity of just 230MW. The generated energy at 2030 would be approximately 880GWh more than the demand. This demonstrates that unless there is very little change in sectoral growth rates, the electrical energy demand would be adequately supplied if there are no major plant failures. Of note however, by 2030, over 25% of power plant capacity will be renewable energy plants. The intermittency issues can adversely affect the energy available to the consumer. The 20% target of renewable energy in the Jamaican energy mix should be achieved by 2020. The retirement of early wind turbines in 2024 will result in the renewable fraction dropping to 19% (-20MW) but by 2025, the fraction increases to 21% due to the installation of 40MW of wind turbines. The renewable fraction continues to increase up to 2030 due to the increase in hydro and wind energy plants and the retirement of fuel oil and diesel plants. Editor’s Note: Paper presented at the 46th Annual Frontiers in Education (FIE) Conference, Santiago, Cuba, 2016.